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Blogs

Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

Is There Still A Path that Returns Puerto Rico to Debt Sustainability?

Puerto Rico’s debt restructuring is in a strange form of limbo. Read More

March 15, 2019

China
The Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Was Not Replicated Across Asia The Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Was Not Replicated Across Asia

China's surplus is down relative to its pre-global crisis level, both in dollar terms and as a percent of China's own GDP.    The same cannot be said of China's neighbors.   East and Southeast Asia are still a substantial exporters of savings to the rest of the world.

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March 14, 2019

China
Why China's Incomplete Macroeconomic Adjustment Makes China 2025 a Bigger Risk Why China's Incomplete Macroeconomic Adjustment Makes China 2025 a Bigger Risk

How the fragile macro-economic base of China’s external adjustment could intersect with China 2025 and generate a new "China" shock.

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March 5, 2019

China
Taking Managed Trade Seriously—What Would a Deal that Tries to Close the Bilateral Deficit Need to Look Like? Taking Managed Trade Seriously—What Would a Deal that Tries to Close the Bilateral Deficit Need to Look Like?

If Trump wants to set targets for China’s imports, he should focus on its imports of manufactures—not on getting tweetable deliverables out of the soybeans and oil that China will import (from someone) no matter what…

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