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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Three Sudden Stops and a Surge

There is one point of agreement among most ten-year retrospectives that have been published on the global financial crisis: it wasn’t quite the crisis many had expected. It wasn’t marked by a loss of confidence in the safest of U.S. assets, a fall in the dollar and a rise in U.S. interest rates.  Read More

September 13, 2018

Turkey
Could A Coalition of the “Friends of Turkey” Ride to Turkey’s Financial Rescue? Could A Coalition of the “Friends of Turkey” Ride to Turkey’s Financial Rescue?

Turkey is in a bit of financial trouble. It isn’t clear that today's rate hike on its own will be enough. The rate hike will make the lira a bit more attractive to foreign investors (and will raise the return on domestic residents holding lira deposits too).  But it will squeeze the banks—who run a funding mismatch in lira.

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August 29, 2018

International Finance
Can Anyone Other than the U.S. Fund a Current Account Deficit These Days? Can Anyone Other than the U.S. Fund a Current Account Deficit These Days?

Almost all oil-importing emerging economies with current account deficits are under market pressure to adjust ... 

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August 20, 2018

Turkey
Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat

Turkey has some similarities with the Asian crisis countries back in the 1990s, but also important differences. When emerging-market crisis typologies are updated to reflect the events of 2018, Turkey should enter into the pantheon on its own, not just as a sub-category of “Asian-style” crises.

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