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January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

February 22, 2018

China
Electric trucks are shown at BYD headquarters in Shenzhen, China May 25, 2016. China’s Coming Challenge to the U.S. Petro-Economy

U.S. oil production is set to surpass its all-time record monthly high (first set in 1970), and U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are roaring ahead, with 800 billion cubic feet already shipped since…

February 16, 2018

United States
Mapping Capital Flows Into the U.S. Over the Last Thirty Years Mapping Capital Flows Into the U.S. Over the Last Thirty Years

Up until 2014, the growth in central bank dollar reserves closely mapped to the increase in U.S. net external debt. The past few years have been different: for the first time in a long time, yield-st…

February 15, 2018

United States
Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda

It looks like a combination of tax cuts and spending increases will raise the U.S. fiscal deficit by about 2 percentage points of GDP (that’s the number Krugman used; Goldman’s US economics team puts…

February 15, 2018

Europe
“Doom Loop” Binding Weak Banks and Sovereigns Still Haunts Europe “Doom Loop” Binding Weak Banks and Sovereigns Still Haunts Europe

One important reason no one talks about Puerto Rico leaving the “dollar zone” is that the island’s banks have minimal exposure to its government’s debt. There is thus no need even to consider int…

February 2, 2018

Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve The Role of the U.S. Federal Reserve

The role of the Federal Reserve has transformed in the past decade, as it has deployed trillions of dollars to boost the U.S. economy while expanding its regulatory oversight of the nation’s financia…

February 2, 2018

Venezuela
Demonstrators rally against Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. Venezuela in Crisis

President Nicolas Maduro’s efforts to consolidate power amid a deepening economic and humanitarian crisis have drawn widespread international condemnation.

February 1, 2018

Mexico
Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto stands during the promulgation of the anti-corruption laws at the National Palace in Mexico City, Mexico July 18, 2016. Mexico's Voters Have Bigger Problems Than Trump

United States institutions have led the charge against corruption and corporate malfeasance in Mexico. But they can’t replace a working homegrown legal system. For all the strides Mexico has made in …

February 1, 2018

Infrastructure
Construction/Infrastructure/Reuters Bipartisanship on Infrastructure? Not So Fast

A bipartisan deal on infrastructure seems doable—but with the devil in the details, it is much harder than it looks.