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August 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Peter Galbraith and Iraq

I think the folks over at TPM Café are right: David Brooks' latest New York Times column is a real flip-flop.  He has gone from celebrating the United States firm commitment to universal democrat…

September 15, 2005

Monetary Policy
Is Asia still accumulating reserves in financial self defense?

I think it is fair to say that I profoundly disagree with this week's Economics Focus column in the Economist, and therefore, I suspect, with the underlying Genbert, McCauley, Park and Persaud pa…

December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

October 2, 2005

Capital Flows
A consequence of saying no to China’s (oops, CNOOC’s) bid for Unocal?

Or just the natural result of expectations that China's demand for imported energy will soar in the future?  Probably a bit of both. China clearly has no particular desire to export democracy, o…

February 10, 2006

United States
Big, and getting bigger. The 2005 trade and current account deficit

$65.7b in December$198.2 b for the fourth quarter$725.8 b for the year.Big numbers, all.The roughly $200b fourth quarter trade deficit was about as big as the $200 b quarterly current account deficit…

June 29, 2006

Emerging Markets
Levered long/ long funds …

An anonymous partner at a mid-sized London hedge fund expressed something I was trying to say a couple of weeks ago fair better than I could have.   From the Financial Times: "A lot of managers…

December 11, 2006

Financial Markets
The GCC’s dollar peg …

China will have a current account surplus of over $200b this year.  China has about 1.3 billion people.   The GCC countries (Saudi Arabia and the small states on the Gulf) will also have a current ac…

March 25, 2007

Monetary Policy
Still going strong (Bretton Woods 2)

I watch the data on global reserve growth rather closely.  But I was still surprised to see (via Global Liquidity Blog) the scale of the growth in the Fed's custodial holdings so far in the first…

March 21, 2007

Financial Markets
The dollar is no longer a high carry currency …

That at least is what the market seems to think.  The carry trade has bounced back. The Australian dollar -- a high carry currency -- is setting new highs (v. the US dollar at least).  The kiwi has r…

July 26, 2007

Economics
It is now (almost) official: q1 dollar reserve growth exceeded the US current account deficit …

The BIS reported data on central banks’ accumulation of dollars in the international banking system today (Table 5c).    Central banks added $24.5b to their dollar holdings – but also repaid $53.5b i…